a dialogue (sort of)

reader noblesavage (a die-hard hillary supporter) had some thoughts about the candidates in general and yesterday's primaries in particular--i thought i'd respond to some of 'em:

It was a disappointing night for Hillary only because of the expectations game. If you were to say two weeks ago that she would win Indiana, that would have been a surprise as Obama was ahead in Indiana and way ahead in North Carolina.

i wonder, though, how different the outcome might have been had not many of its poor blacks been kept from voting due to the supreme court's recent upholding of indiana's version of the poll tax--or if rush limbaugh's "operation chaos" had not been in play.

Why should Hillary get out now? Obama now has enough damage that another hit would be potentially very devastating to his campaign. You will notice the Rev. Wright matter, part deux, was far more hurtful to Obama than the first dust-up.

she's gotta do the pleasure/pain equation, noblesavage--is staying in on the (increasingly small) off-chance that something bigger than wright will come along before the convention worth the hit she'll take to what's left of her prestige and stature within not only her party but the country as a whole? i mean, if at least a few of barack's supposed gay trysting partners don't get in front of a camera pretty damn quick, it's gonna be too late.

Hillary has stayed in so long, it appears, because she believes Obama is not tough enough and is not capable of managing the Fall campaign. She repeatedly told Bill Richardson that Obama can't win in the Fall.

if he can run this hard and this well against a team as smart and shrewd as the clintons, he can handle the debates with mccain with one hand tied behind his back. as far as the dirty stuff goes, i think the wright thing's done as much damage as it can (which may be considerable--we don't know yet), whereas the dems haven't even begun to scratch the surface of mccain's past.

I think Obama can win. I also think it would be a lot easier for Hillary to win. And the recent polls clearly bear this out. Particularly when you look at the cross-tabs and really get inside the polls.

i've been torn about this from the beginning: which would alienate middle-america least--the shrill woman with all the baggage, or the black guy who could be a closet racist? up to this point they've been playing to the choir--now it gets interesting.

In the meantime, MSNBC will be in high dungeon mode demanding Hillary get out because she is keeping Obama from his rightful nomination and all but calling her a racist for it (usually in very sexist terms).

that's both obama's weakness and his strength--post-wright, every attack against him is now gonna be characterized as racist. the repubs are gonna have to walk a fine line to avoid alienating the middle; and, frankly, if his back's against the wall i dunno that mccain's up to that kind of restraint.

I don't know much about Obama, but I find it interesting how so many people prefer the person they don't know in Obama versus the person they do know in Clinton as if Obama has no faults or shadow or human frailty.

baggage aside, the perceived difference between obama and clinton is, for lots of people, the difference between a warm bath and a cold shower. to me, the true tragedy of hillary clinton is that she always thought being the smartest girl in the class would be enough to take her to the top--hell, all those years around all those hollywood people, she never figured out what her husband always instinctively knew: that politics is show business. some voice and acting lessons, who knows where she might be right now?

The other part about Obama's message is he is either naive or feckless when he talks about bringing people together.

i couldn't agree with you more.

So, people are going to be "surprised" about Obama soon enough and disappointed if not "betrayed" by Obama soon enough.

He cannot deliver what he is selling. Even if he doesn't realize that.

yeah, this is the thing that's gonna be interesting--once he gets in, sees the big picture and reality sets in, and "hope" and "change" turn to politics as usual, there are gonna be a lot of very naive, very vocal, very disappointed people who are gonna feel very betrayed.

Get out?

Well, we shall see if Hillary takes your advice guttermorality. I doubt she will.

she has the opportunity to go out on a win, lick her wounds and regroup; it's my opinion she should take it. will she? that's anybody's guess.