"We will not have any more crashes in our time."
John Maynard Keynes in 1927
"Hysteria has now disappeared from Wall Street."
The Times of London, November 2, 1929
"... a serious depression seems improbable; [we expect] recovery of business next spring, with further improvement in the fall."
Harvard Economic Society, November 10, 1929
"Financial storm definitely passed."
Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929
"I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism... I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress."
Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, December 31, 1929
"I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence."
Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, December 1929
"[1930 will be] a splendid employment year."
U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year's Forecast, December 1929
"The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern...American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity."
Julius Barnes, head of Hoover's National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930
"While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst -- and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us."
Herbert Hoover, May 1, 1930
"We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression."
Harvard Economic Society, Nov 15, 1930
"All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S."
Franklin D. Roosevelt, President of the United States, 1933*
* * * * *
i remember back when i first moved into the canyon, i was warned about the coyotes--how when they got really hungry, they'd send one of their pups down from the hills into our midst to engage an unwatched dog in happy play, lull it into complacency and lure it back up to their killing field where, once the pack was done with it, all that'd be left would be picked-clean bones for its owner to find later.
if you choose to play this last-gasp rally our leaders and pundits are so desperately trying to suck you into, put your stops in place, tend them daily and be careful. volumes are incredibly light, which tells me the smart money is sitting on the sidelines, waiting for pups like you to be lured up the hill by the happy talk of the coyotes of wall street, washington and the mainstream press.
all i'm sayin--and yeah i know i'm like a dog with bone on this issue, but it's only because i figure you should get the truth somewhere.
________________
* these were only my selected favorites; you want a taste of the full panoply of evil stupidity that reigned back then as it does even now, click here.
if you choose to play this last-gasp rally our leaders and pundits are so desperately trying to suck you into, put your stops in place, tend them daily and be careful. volumes are incredibly light, which tells me the smart money is sitting on the sidelines, waiting for pups like you to be lured up the hill by the happy talk of the coyotes of wall street, washington and the mainstream press.
all i'm sayin--and yeah i know i'm like a dog with bone on this issue, but it's only because i figure you should get the truth somewhere.
________________
* these were only my selected favorites; you want a taste of the full panoply of evil stupidity that reigned back then as it does even now, click here.
4 comments:
Well, I disagree.
But if noblesavage did not disagree with guttermorality on just about everything, it would be far less interesting.
First, I actually agree that it seems the current March through August stock market rally is overstating the strength of the economy and appears to be overpricing some stocks.
Having said that, the March lows -- as I predicted then -- would be the trough for the market.
In simple terms: I think we are due for a market correction as well.
If I were to be more precise, I would say that there should be a correction of about 20 to 25 percent from the 9500 Dow/1000 S&P/200 NASDAQ. But, sometimes the market overshoots as well.
But, unlike guttermorality, I also think we have seen the worst of the recession and all of the broader market indicators seem to have troughed as well.
It's still a bad economy, but it is not getting worse. Whether it is getting better (actual recovery) is another story and that depends on what you choose to focus upon.
So, guttermorality's prediction of another market crash and economic depression is not impossible, but also not likely.
We pulled back from the brink of true economic meltdown last October. But we are back from the brink.
I'm not saying it cannot happen. I'm just saying that the odds are against it happening. There would have to be a fundamental change in the equation to make it happen -- like, for example, China pulling all of its money out of t-bills.
That would fundamentally alter the situation and, as faithful guttermorality readers know, is one of the favored scenarios that gets us to the next great depression.
noblesavage: a year or so from now, one of us will be doing the i-told-you-so dance; i sincerely hope it is you.
I know you are saying that only because I am a much better dancer than you.
well, there is that.
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