. . . some of this is also generational. You know, when I go to college campuses, sometimes I talk to college Republicans who think that I have terrible policies on the economy, on foreign policy, but are very clear that when it comes to same-sex equality or, you know, sexual orientation, that they believe in equality. They are much more comfortable with it.
while everyone else is either jumping for joy or rending their garments, depending on their own views, i'm looking at the political calculus that went into the president's decision to come out in favor of gay marriage at this point in time.
he's been holding this card for a long time, after flip-flopping on the issue more than once [a bit romneyesque, that, dontcha think, barry?] and i dunno whether it was because his hand was forced by his idiot VP or because he decided it was time to rally the base, but whatever motivated this move, it sure as hell wasn't conscience.
he had to know he'd piss off the black folk, who tend to be very conservative as regards the homos, but then he also knows he could leave michelle and marry rielle hunter and they'd still be behind him in 90%+ numbers, so he figures he's probably safe there.
and, of course, he's right about young people. whether lliberal or conservative, they increasingly don't see gay marriage as an issue; and their elders--the ones who do--will be dead soon enough.
so this may win him a few votes from the young'uns, but those old folks? for now, they're still with us. and boy, do they vote. and this may prove to be the lever his opponent has been looking for to pry the evangelicals away from their fear and loathing and into his camp.
so did he do the right thing or the wrong thing in taking this uncharacteristically bold and risky stand (politically speaking, of course, which is all that matters to this guy)? i dunno, but of one thing i'm fairly certain.
i smell fear.
2 comments:
Smell fear?
I thought that was your cologne.
Really, you think Obama did this as a calculated decision? The politics of same sex marriage have shifted enormously in the past 20 years and have accelerated in the past 4.
Having said that, the demographics make this not so safe for Obama. Keep in mind that North Carolina, a swing state, passed its constitutional amendment banning same sex marriage and domestic partnerships on Tuesday with over 60 percent of the vote.
So, in the states that Obama is not going to lose in November, this may provide Obama some additional support. But in key swing states, coming out for same sex marriage may be a negative that will hurt him.
But really, it's the economy. Obama is going to be re-elected if the economy improves. He is going to be defeated if the economy gets worse. It is going to be very close and tough if the economy stays the same.
of course it was calculated--this has been in the works for four years. i figure he was looking to either play it as an october surprise if his numbers sucked, or, if that wasn't necessary, wait until after he won in november and then go much further with a call for legalization on a federal level.
but, thanks to good ol' joe, we'll never know, will we?
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