a current events post

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the thing i find so fascinating about the uprisings in tunisia and egypt is how they're being spun to america.  the mainstream media seem to be focusing on the "blow for democracy" angle, the NPR types are endlessly dissecting the sociopolitical roots of the unrest, and the right-wingers are hysterically warning how it could happen here tomorrow.

what nobody seems to be talking about--and what they should be, because it's really the only important point--is, why now all of a sudden?

think about it:  a month ago this shit wasn't on anybody's radar, and now it seems to be spreading like wildfire all over the middle east.  what, pray tell, made these people--who have passively chafed under the iron-fisted rule of their respective dictators for years--pick now to go all apeshit?

the truth is simple: fuck all the highbrow analysis, these people are revolting for the same reason peasants have revolted since time immemorial.  problem is, it's an inconvenient truth, so it's not being talked about much here in america.

to illustrate my point, consider for a minute the following chart [because you know i'm all about the charts] i came across tonight, courtesy of one of my gurus, chris martenson--it shows the percentage rise in key commodity prices over the past year:

yeah.  the price of wheat--a staple food in the middle east--has risen 76% in the past year, not to mention how much everything else has gone up.

we first-worlders tend to forget that, when you live in a technologically backward country and spend most of your meager income on food, a price rise like that is a big fuckin deal, and hungry people tend to get really, really angry.

but wait--according to our own consumer price index, food inflation in december at 0.1% was the lowest it's been in five months.  and besides, ben bernanke has been reassuring us for a couple years that all his quantitative easing was justified because inflation was so low--so how could this possibly be?

well, as mark twain once said, there are lies, damn lies, and statistics.

the truth is, as we americans have basked in our fool's paradise these last couple years and ben has printed his money, the bankers have taken all that new money and bought up lots of stocks, treasuries and commodities, thus driving up prices on everything.

and now they're rioting in the middle east and soon god only knows where else, and the chinese manufacturers are panicking because cotton is going through the roof which will kill the already paper-thin margins of american clothing retailers, and food manufacturers are downsizing their cereal boxes and hoping consumers won't notice, and oil is over $100 again, and--well, you get the picture.

but there's no inflation, right?

the only real question is, will this latest fed-induced bubble burst before any more serious damage is done?  my guess is no, because that would require ben to tighten the money supply--and if he did that, the stock and bond markets would crash, the "recovery" would evaporate and his fellow bankers would be really, really mad at him.

so my guess is there'll be more quantitative easing, and thus more commodity inflation, and thus more rioting and more new "democracy" in godforsaken places where iron-fisted dictatorships would be infinitely preferable.

actions have consequences, and the chickens of the past are finally coming home to roost.  history is happening now, folks--fasten your seatbelts, because it's gonna be a bumpy night.