picture in your mind john mccain calling a press conference tomorrow and giving something like the following speech:
and then, point made, he can blather on for awhile about how it's been the democrats with their wacko environmental ideas who have gotten us into this mess, how the drilling can be done in an environmentally-sensitive manner, and how doing so will restore america's greatness and the cheap gasoline which is our birthright as americans, yadda yadda yadda...
"i feel your pain at the pump, my friends. what's more, i see billions of dollars going each year to the middle east, venezuela, canada and mexico that could--and should--stay right here, to be invested not only in finding new american oil, but in creating thousands of new, high-paying american jobs.
therefore, i'm declaring today that when i'm elected your president, my first priority will be to work with my fellow republicans in the congress [it'd be a nice touch for a few of 'em with shaky seats to be standing behind him while he's saying all this--shame they all hate your guts, huh, johnny?], and with those democrats who truly care about our economic future, to open up the ANWR province of alaska, and the oil-rich areas off the shores of california and florida, to new exploration and drilling.
it's an idea whose time has come--no longer can we afford to be dependent on others for our energy needs [and then he can hammer home this point for a minute or two, appeal to their patriotism and nationalistic pride and soften 'em up for the kill].
i feel i can say without reservation, my friends [you gotta put that in a few times, because you know he loves saying "my friends" a lot] that the minute the hedge funds and futures markets realize the seriousness of our resolve, the price of a barrel of oil will drop by at least $50, and the price of gasoline will follow."
and you know what? i think it's a winner.
sure, the die-hard left would scream, as would california--but he's lost them anyway. the point is, after the hammering middle-americans have taken in their pocketbook lately, i think they'd abandon all the lofty environmental positions of the left in a fuckin' heartbeat if it meant even the mere promise of cheaper gas.
and the best thing is, there's not a goddam thing the democrats could offer in response, other than pallid wailing and gnashing of teeth about the "environment." which, as a happy bonus, would make them look like the hypocrites most of 'em are on this issue--expecting as they do to continue to use the majority of the world's oil output, but with a "not in my backyard" attitude about domestic drilling.
so there it is--even though i'm way behind the curve on this idea. the only excuse i can offer for my own myopia here is simple indifference: i haven't been paying attention to newtie and his boys on this one because, truth be told, i could give a rat's ass what gas costs; far as i'm concerned, the higher it goes, the more of the riff-raff it'll get outta their rattletrap cars and onto the buses where they belong so i can get to work.
so thanks to apollo over at snarky bastards for bringing it back to the forefront of my mind via this post--seriously, folks, i've thought this thing through six different ways from sunday, and i don't see how it could--if spun properly, of course (lee atwater, where are you when johnny needs you?)--fail to resonate with the public, endear mccain to conservatives and get him a lotta votes he would otherwise never see.
[unless, of course, the oil bubble bursts before november, in which case he'll be as fucked then as he is now.]
4 comments:
Have you heard the soundbites of Charlie Christ (stupid fucking governor of Florida) talking about how we need to start drilling on our own land, but NOT Florida?
And you're right--that would be an excellent speech. It's something The Madman (my father) and I spent a great deal of time discussing on my vacation in stupid Florida.
I dunno.
I still think McCain is toast unless the Republican attack machine genuinely goes racist...I mean elitist on Obama.
Two problems with the speech: First, I think it plays best in areas that McCain is already going to win. He is already going to win the exurbs where people drive giant SUVs two hours to their jobs far away. They have been strongly Republican these past two elections. But, they also do not trust McCain is truly one of them (read Born Again). Yes, Texas and Alaska will love it. But Obama is not going to win either of those states unless it is a true wipeout.
Second, McCain has been running as an environmentalist. He has a decent enough record to back it up. He changes course and he looks like an opportunist. That is not such a big deal for most, except the strongest thing going for McCain is his integrity. He looks like just another politician by pandering on gas.
Obama is going to win or lose this election depending upon whether a lot of white working class men and woman thinks he gives a damn about them and people like them. If he passes that test, even if only by a little bit, he has such a strong wind at his back this year it's hard to imagine any scenario where McCain picks up the needs states to win.
If Obama seems too aloof, too much not like the guy next door, then he is going to have a tough time winning the toss up states he needs to win.
Also, as Judi notes, there's a lot of NIMBY on this issue. I would modify your strategy just a little bit. I would have McCain go to Florida and talk about the need to open up ANWR and then go to Alaska and talk about the need to open up Florida.
From the political blog "The Caucus" at nytimes.com comes this:
McCain to Lay Out His Energy Prescription
By Elisabeth Bumiller
DALLAS — Senator John McCain is set to say in Texas today that conservation is no longer a “moral luxury’’ or a “personal virtue’’ and that the next president must break with the energy policies of the current and past administrations to free America from its dependence on foreign oil.
In a major energy speech that implicitly criticizes Vice President Dick Cheney, who dismissed conservation as a “personal virtue’’ in 2001, Mr. McCain is to call for a variety of means to increase production, including lifting a federal ban on offshore oil and gas drilling and building new refineries and nuclear reactors.
But the speech, or at least the excerpts provided in advance by Mr. McCain’s campaign, does not dwell in detail on conservation measures.
Instead, Mr. McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, is to provide an audience of Houston oil executives with more details of his proposal to lift the federal moratorium on offshore oil and gas exploration in states that want it. Mr. McCain’s position is welcome news for the oil industry, which has called for years for the ban to be lifted.
So you see, guttermorality, you are a day or two ahead of the McCain presidential camp.
Having said that, does he move votes who are undecided? Probably not. Does he shore up wavering Republican support? Maybe. Is it enough? No.
judi: yeah, nimby in action, as usual--but hey, there's still lots of big gas-guzzling cadillacs in florida.
noblesavage: while it's true mccain has always been strong on the environment, i think a case could legitimately be made that the exigencies of the situation compel a new look at drilling in environmentally-sensitive areas--and doing it with the utmost safety and care, of course. and with ANWR, he could always use the old "picture a playing card on a basketball court--that's the area we're talking about" analogy.
you're right, however; it would be much more shrewd to talk about drilling in florida anywhere else but florida, and california likewise. and screw alaska's feelings on the matter--they'll never go for obama no matter what.
and i really think that if he goes big enough with this and handles it right, he'll have an unchallengable issue over the next several months.
and it's quite interesting to see, from your second comment, that he's starting to lean in that direction. but hey johnny, stickin a timid toe in this particular pond ain't gonna do it--you're gonna have to make a big splash.
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